An excellent analysis of the political situation in [north] Sudan has been published by the International Crisis Group, a thinktank based in Brussels, Belgium. They title their document "Conflict Risk Alert: Stopping the Spread of Sudan’s New Civil War."
What makes this piece good is that key events are dated - the process of destroying the hope of the Comprehensive Peace
Agreement is clear, as are the reasons for military action in South
Kordovan and Blue Nile State. The document is only about 30 paragraphs long, and will give you a good grasp of the current political situation.
The history of the CPA is reviewed, as is the internal dynamics of the Khartoum regime. The lack of trust toward international nations and groups is noted, as are the difficulties of creating a friendly relationship with the new southern neighbour.
After listing three recommendations, the final paragraph reads:
President Bashir will undoubtedly resist any further external efforts to
pursue a more peaceful outcome for Sudan, but given the increasing
fragility of the regime, not least its growing economic weakness, he may
be persuaded to engage with a coordinated international approach.
International actors must come out with a strong voice to support a
national agenda for a transition to an inclusive government. In the
absence of a national political framework, and without clear
international consensus to encourage and support a national peace
process, the conflict in Sudan may spiral out control and engulf the
region.
Read the report, "Conflict Risk Alert: Stopping the Spread of Sudan’s New Civil War."
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