September 28, 2011

Civil war to come to Sudan?

An excellent analysis of the political situation in [north] Sudan has been published by the International Crisis Group, a thinktank based in Brussels, Belgium. They title their document "Conflict Risk Alert: Stopping the Spread of Sudan’s New Civil War." 

What makes this piece good is that key events are dated - the process of destroying the hope of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement is clear, as are the reasons for military action in South Kordovan and Blue Nile State. The document is only about 30 paragraphs long, and will give you a good grasp of the current political situation.

The history of the CPA is reviewed, as is the internal dynamics of the Khartoum regime. The lack of trust toward international nations and groups is noted, as are the difficulties of creating a friendly relationship with the new southern neighbour. 

After listing three recommendations, the final paragraph reads:
President Bashir will undoubtedly resist any further external efforts to pursue a more peaceful outcome for Sudan, but given the increasing fragility of the regime, not least its growing economic weakness, he may be persuaded to engage with a coordinated international approach. International actors must come out with a strong voice to support a national agenda for a transition to an inclusive government. In the absence of a national political framework, and without clear international consensus to encourage and support a national peace process, the conflict in Sudan may spiral out control and engulf the region.

Sourced from allAfrica.

This document has been republished at UNHCR as well.

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